Title: Moderní teorie dlouhodobé spotřeby v kontextu "Mankiwovy" záhady
Other Titles: The modern theory of durable consumption in contrary with the Mankiw puzzle
Authors: Makovský, Petr
Citation: Trendy v podnikání = Business trends : vědecký časopis Fakulty ekonomické ZČU v Plzni. 2017, č. 2, s. 75-84.
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Západočeská univerzita v Plzni
Document type: článek
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11025/29151
ISSN: 1805-0603
Keywords: dlouhodobá spotřeba;Mankiwova záhada;dotační příspěvek;stochastický proces ARMA
Keywords in different language: durable consumption;Mankiw puzzle;scrapping subsidy;ARMA stochastic process
Abstract in different language: In this paper we are interested in the effects of the durable consumption. Main idea is about the so called Mankiw puzzle verification on the data sample of the current time series from Germany and the Czech Republic (quarterly data 2004Q1-2016Q4). In other word whether or not the observed durable consumption tends to spontaneously disappear in the economy. We have statistically tested the stochastic process ARMA (1,1) on the given time series. Concretely whether autoregression parameter is less than one and at the same time if the more important deprecation parameter is equal to one (MA parameter equal to zero). In original analyzes performed so far, the time series from the United States of France, demonstrated the statistical significance of the values of the mentioned coefficients. Mankiw's puzzle has been proven, which has led to arguments for the introduction of scrapping subsidies in France and many other European countries in the 1990s. More, demand growth was expected to increase in the ten-year cycle of new car consumption. We have run analysis, in which we concluded about falsification of the Mankiw puzzle. We used the current data samples from the Czech Republic and Germany (2004Q1 to 2016Q4). In general, innovation (parameter MA is non-zero) does not affect but affects durable consumption over a longer period of time. The analysis results argue against the introduction of scrapping subsidies based on current data.
Rights: © Západočeská univerzita v Plzni
Appears in Collections:Číslo 2 (2017)
Číslo 2 (2017)

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