| Title: | Empirické ověření prognózy prostřednictvím Forwardového kurzu |
| Other Titles: | Empirical verification of the theory of forward rate |
| Authors: | Ptatscheková, Jitka Draessler, Jan |
| Citation: | E+M. Ekonomie a Management = Economics and Management. 2013, č. 2, s. 129-137. |
| Issue Date: | 2013 |
| Publisher: | Technická univerzita v Liberci |
| Document type: | článek article |
| URI: | http://www.ekonomie-management.cz/download/1404723513_cc45/2013_2+Empiricke+overeni+teorie+forwardoveho+kurzu.pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11025/17502 |
| ISSN: | 1212-3609 (Print) 2336-5604 (Online) |
| Keywords: | forwardový směnný kurz;spotový směnný kurz;účinnost na trhu;futures spotový kurz;prognóza budoucího spotového kurzu |
| Keywords in different language: | forward exchange rate;spot exchange rate;markket efficiency;futures spot rate;rorecast of ruture spot rate |
| Abstract in different language: | In 2012, the Czech koruna celebrated twenty years since its inception. During this time it went through systems of various exchange rates. While fixed system was implemented at the beginning of its existence, since 1997 the Czech Koruna has moved to a system that allows greater exchange rate volatility. Businesses must cope with this volatility, and therefore seek appropriate methods of forecasting future exchange rate movements. One of the methods is forecast by forward rates. The indisputable advantage of this method is the low cost associated with the detection of forward exchange rate for the most traded currency pairs. The euro and dolar are the most important currencies in the Czech republic for foreign trade. Con-sequently it is necessary to forecast exchange rates for the Czech Koruna and USD and Euro. One of the tools for forecasting the future spot rate is the forward rate. In this paper, we verify the hypothesis the forward rate does not provide long-term profit. Our validation is based on the design of error correction model for exchange rates CZK/USD and CZK/EUR in 2001–2011. |
| Rights: | © Technická univerzita v Liberci CC BY-NC 4.0 |
| Appears in Collections: | Číslo 2 (2013) Číslo 3 (2013) |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013_2 Empiricke overeni teorie forwardoveho kurzu.pdf | Plný text | 626,72 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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